A hurricane warning has been issued for the Sabine Pass to Morgan City, Louisiana. New Orleans is just outside the forecast cone of uncertainty but is under a hurricane watch.

“Significant strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days,” the hurricane center said. Officials warned residents within the forecast cone to complete preparations by Tuesday night and expect conditions to rapidly deteriorate through Wednesday.

Tropical storm warnings are in effect for northeastern Mexico and far southern Texas.

As of 5 a.m. Tuesday, the system was located 120 miles southeast of the Rio Grande at the Mexico-U.S. border. It was moving north-northwest at 5 mph with maximum sustained wind speeds of 65 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles from the center.

Francine is expected to impact Texas and Louisiana as a hurricane on Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

After making landfall along the Louisiana coast, the system “is expected to move inland along the Texas-Louisiana border,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Isaac Longley. “One of the main concerns with this storm is that it is forecast to move into an area already impacted by heavy rain and flooding from a separate tropical rainstorm this past week.

“The ground across far eastern Texas and into Louisiana is already saturated, so it would not take much rain to cause flooding across these areas.”

The storm should bring 4 to 8 inches of rain, with local amounts to 12 inches, from the coastal border areas of Mexico northward all the way to southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning. Flash flooding and urban flooding are a risk.

The National Hurricane Center added a storm surge warning from Vermillion Bay east to the mouth of the Mississippi River, and a surge watch from the mouth of the Mississippi east to the Mississippi-Alabama border.

If storm surge coincides with high tides, coastal Louisiana south and west of of New Orleans could see surges from 5 feet to 10 feet high, forecasters said.

There also is a hurricane watch from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle in Louisiana.

A tropical storm watch has been issued east of High Island, Texas, to Cameron, Louisiana, and from Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

AccuWeather expert meteorologists say 60 mph to 70 mph wind gusts are possible along the Gulf Coast through Thursday.

Meanwhile, two systems in the eastern Atlantic are being monitored and could develop into tropical depressions.

In the central Atlantic, an elongated trough of low pressure could become a tropical depression in the next few days as it moves west, forecasters said.

As of 8 p.m. Monday, it had a 40% chance of forming in the next two to seven days, down from 60% earlier in the day.

Meanwhile, a third system trailing close behind could become a tropical depression in the mid to latter part of this week, after it interacts with an approaching tropical wave, forecasters said. As of 8 p.m. Monday, it had a 70% chance of forming in the next seven days.

Experts at Colorado State University issued a new forecast last Tuesday, predicting below-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic for the next two weeks.

Here’s what the next two weeks of hurricane season should look like, according to experts

Overall, CSU experts predict 23 named storms in the 2024 season, leaving the possibility of 18 more before the season ends on Nov. 30. The average number of named storms between 1991 to 2020 is 14.4.

The next named storm will be Gordon.

Ernesto’s maximum sustained winds increased overnight to near 85 mph (140 kph), with higher gusts, the hurricane center said. It is expected to weaken and become a post-tropical storm by Tuesday, the center said.

The storm was centered about 340 miles (550 kilometers) south of Halifax, Nova Scotia, and was expected to pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and early Tuesday, the center said. Some coastal flooding in Canada was possible.

But people all along the Northeast’s coast should be careful, the center said.

“We would certainly encourage anyone going to beaches, really, anywhere along the U.S. East Coast to just pay attention to whatever flags are up, whatever lifeguards are saying, and stay out of the water if it’s not safe,” David Zelinksy, lead meteorologist with the hurricane center, said Monday.

Flooding in Connecticut from a storm that dropped as much as 10 inches (25.4 centimeters) of rain Sunday was unrelated to Ernesto, weather officials said. The rain washed away roads, flooded basements, and led to rescues and at least one death.

Still, swells generated by Ernesto were affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast, as well as the Canadian Atlantic coast. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days, the hurricane center said.

The weather service posted a coastal flood advisory and warned of a high risk for rip currents along the Atlantic coast through Monday evening, saying they “can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water.”

A warning extended from Florida to the Boston area and portions of Maine.

Over the weekend, Ernesto initially had weakened to a tropical storm late Saturday after bringing heavy rain and strong winds to Bermuda, but no injuries or major incidents, Bermuda Security Minister Michael Weeks said Sunday afternoon.

Ernesto previously battered the northeastern Caribbean, leaving tens of thousands of people without water in Puerto Rico.

After cleaning up and removing debris, the Virgin Islands Department of Education said all public schools would resume operations Monday. Public school classes also were slated to start Monday in Puerto Rico, nearly a week after the original opening date.

The storm is expected to weaken significantly as it continues to curve into cooler waters, in the general direction of Ireland, and dissipate on Wednesday.

As of 11 a.m. Tuesday, Ernesto was located about 420 miles east-northeast of Cape Race, Nova Scotia, moving northeast at 37 mph, the National Hurricane Center said.

Days ago, Ernesto forced residents of Bermuda to stay indoors, and more than 23,000 people lost power, officials said.

According to AccuWeather, it’s uncommon for the eye of a hurricane to make landfall in Bermuda. It noted that since 1850, only 11 of 130 tropical storms that came within 100 miles of Bermuda had made landfall.

Ernesto also previously battered the northeast Caribbean, where it left tens of thousands of people without water in Puerto Rico.

AccuWeather experts expect there will be a brief pause in activity in the Atlantic after Ernesto, but they are forecasting “the tropics to shift into high gear by the end of August.”

Hurricane season, which runs from June 1-Nov. 30, has entered the busiest time of the year from mid-August to October. The next named storm will be Francine.

Though July was quiet, experts at Colorado State said the remainder of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season should be “extremely active,” with the likelihood of 10 more hurricanes.

Colorado State’s department of atmospheric science’s final 2024 hurricane season forecast called for a “well-above-average” August through November, although it reduced its number of named storms from its July forecast, from 25 down to 23. The 1991 to 2020 average is 14.4.

The Colorado State team still expects 12 hurricanes (the 1991-2020 average was 7.2), and is forecasting that six of those will reach major hurricane strength (Category 3, 4 or 5). The 1991-2020 average is 3.2.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration echoed Colorado State’s prediction in its updated 2024 hurricane season forecast, calling for an “extremely active” remainder of the season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

Information from the Associated Press was used in this report.

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) — Hurricane Ernesto strengthened into a Category 2 storm Thursday night as it barreled toward Bermuda after leaving hundreds of thousands of people in Puerto Rico without power or water. Sweltering heat enveloped the U.S. territory, raising concerns about people’s health.

A hurricane warning was in effect for Bermuda, with Ernesto expected to pass near or over the island Saturday.

Ernesto is forecast to possibly reach Category 3 strength on Friday and drop between four to eight inches of rain in Bermuda, with up to 12 inches in isolated areas.

The storm is then expected to pass near or east of Atlantic Canada on Monday.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. AP’s earlier story follows below.

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) — Hurricane Ernesto barreled toward Bermuda on Thursday after leaving hundreds of thousands of people in Puerto Rico without power or water as sweltering heat enveloped the U.S. territory, raising concerns about people’s health.

A hurricane warning was in effect for Bermuda, with Ernesto expected to pass near or over the island on Saturday.

The Category 1 storm was located about 450 miles (730 kilometers) south-southwest of Bermuda on Thursday afternoon. It had maximum sustained winds of 90 mph (150 kph) and was moving north at 13 mph (20 kph) over open waters.

“I cannot stress enough how important it is for every resident to use this time to prepare. We have seen in the past the devastating effects of complacency,” said National Security Minister Michael Weeks.

Ernesto was forecast to near Category 3 hurricane status on Friday and then decrease in strength as it approaches Bermuda, where it is expected to drop between 6-12 inches of rain, with up to 15 inches in isolated areas.

“All of the guidance show this system as a large hurricane near Bermuda,” said the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Ernesto is then expected to pass near or east of Atlantic Canada on Monday.

Meanwhile, the spinning storm on Thursday was generating southern winds in Puerto Rico, which have a heating effect as opposed to the typical cooling trade winds that blow from the east.

“We know a lot of people don’t have power,” said Ernesto Morales with the National Weather Service as he warned of extreme heat and urged people to stay hydrated.

More than 290,000 of 1.4 million customers remained in the dark Thursday evening, more than a day after Ernesto swiped past Puerto Rico late Tuesday as a tropical storm before strengthening into a hurricane. A maximum of 735,000 clients were without power on Wednesday.

Hundreds of thousands also were without water as many questioned the widespread power outage given that Ernesto was only a tropical storm when it spun past the island.

“I haven’t slept at all,” said Ramón Mercedes Paredes, a 41-year-old construction worker who planned to sleep outdoors on Thursday night to beat the heat. “I haven’t even been able to take a shower.”

At a small park in the Santurce neighborhood of the San Juan capital, Alexander Reyna, a 32-year-old construction worker, sipped on a bright red sports drink that friends provided as roosters crowed nearby above the slap of dominoes.

He had no water or power and planned to spend all day at the park as he lamented the lack of breeze, a slight film of sweat already forming on his forehead: “I have to come here because I cannot stand to be at home.”

The situation worried many who lived through Hurricane Maria, a powerful Category 4 storm that hit Puerto Rico in September 2017 and was blamed for at least 2,975 deaths in its sweltering aftermath. It also razed the island’s power grid, which is still being rebuilt.

The National Weather Service issued a heat advisory on Thursday warning of “dangerously hot and humid conditions.”

Faustino Peguero, 50, said he was concerned about his wife, who has fibromyalgia, heart failure and other health conditions and needs electricity. He has a small generator at home, but he is running out of gasoline and cannot afford to buy more because he hasn’t found work.

“It’s chaos,” he said.

Officials said they don’t know when power will be fully restored as concerns grow about the health of many in Puerto Rico who cannot afford generators or solar panels on the island of 3.2 million people with a more than 40% poverty rate.

Crews have flown more than 540 miles (870 kilometers) across Puerto Rico and identified 400 power line failures, with 150 of them already fixed, said Juan Saca, president of Luma Energy, a private company that operates the transmission and distribution of power in Puerto Rico. The remaining failures will take more time to fix because they involve fallen trees, he added.

“We haven’t seen anything catastrophic,” he said.

When pressed for an estimate of when power would be restored, Alejandro González, Luma’s operations director, declined to say.

“It would be irresponsible to provide an exact date,” he said.

At least 250,000 customers across Puerto Rico also were without water given the power outages, down from a maximum of 350,000. Among them was 65-year-old Gisela Pérez, who was starting to sweat as she cooked sweet plantains, pork, chicken and spaghetti at a street-side diner. After her shift, she planned to buy gallons of water, since she was especially concerned about her two small dogs: Mini and Lazy.

“They cannot go without it,” she said. “They come first.”

The disturbance is moving quickly to the west-northwest at 28 mph, the National Hurricane Center said in its 5 p.m. forecast.

The forward momentum is expected to decrease over the next couple days while Ernesto  tracks west  into the Caribbean Sea, passing portions of the Leeward Islands late Monday or Tuesday and near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Tuesday evening.

Forecasters expect Ernesto to strengthen into a hurricane as it arcs north toward Bermuda. If it does develop into a hurricane, it would be the season’s third, after Beryl and Debby.

Forecasters warned of possibly heavy rainfall and dangerous flash flooding in the Leeward Islands, a chain of islands in the northeast Caribbean Sea, as well as Antigua, Barbuda, Guadaloupe, where tropical storm warnings are posted. Those dangerous conditions are expected in Puerto Rico by Tuesday.

Accuweather meteorologists say after Tropical Storm Ernesto becomes a hurricane, rough surf and dangerous rip currents are expected across the entier East Coast of the United States later in the week.

“Rip currents could be very dangerous along the East coast of the United States. We often see rescues and loss of life at beaches during these types of storms,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said in a prepared statement. “The storm may be hundreds of miles out to sea and the weather could look great at beaches along Florida, the Carolinas, even up to New England, but everyone needs to be aware of the risks and dangers at the beach.”

As of 5 p.m. Monday, the depression’s highest sustained winds had picked up to 40 mph. The system was 295 miles east-southeast of Antigua and 590 miles from San Juan, Puerto Rico, moving west-northwest at 28 mph.

The forecast track has the storm staying well off the U.S. east coast.

Hurricane season, which runs from June 1-Nov. 30, has entered the busiest time of the year from mid-August to October.

Though July was quiet, experts at Colorado State this week said the remainder of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season should be “extremely active,” with the likelihood of 10 more hurricanes.

Colorado State’s department of atmospheric science has released its final 2024 hurricane season forecast for the year, calling for a “well-above-average” August through November.

One bright note is that it actually reduced its number of named storms from its July forecast, from 25 down to 23. The 1991 to 2020 average is 14.4.

The Colorado State team still expects 12 hurricanes (the 1991-2020 average was 7.2), and is forecasting that six of those will reach major hurricane strength (Category 3, 4 or 5). The 1991-2020 average is 3.2.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday echoed Colorado State’s prediction in its updated 2024 hurricane season forecast, calling for an “extremely active” remainder of the season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

PHILADELPHIA (AP) — The weather system previously known as Hurricane Debby was not quite done with parts of the U.S. Sunday as flood warnings remained in effect in North Carolina and thousands were without power in New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

After hitting Florida as a hurricane Aug. 5, the storm spent nearly a week unleashing tornadoes and flooding, damaging homes and taking lives along the East Coast before moving into Canada on Saturday.

While many rivers had receded by Sunday, flood warnings remained in effect across central and eastern North Carolina, where more thunderstorms were possible over the next few days. With the ground already saturated from Debby, the National Weather Service said localized downpours could result in additional flash flooding throughout the coastal Carolinas.

Authorities in Lumberton, N.C., said in a Facebook post Saturday that one person died after driving into floodwaters on a closed road and getting swept away. Officials didn’t identify the driver, but said that what they hoped would be a post-storm rescue, quickly turned into a recovery.

“It bears repeating,” the agency said in the post. “Never drive into flooded roadways and obey road closed signage.”

In New Bern, North Carolina, business was brisk at the Halftime Pub and Grub restaurant Sunday afternoon just after a flash flood warning was issued, said server Chastity Bettis.

“Right now, it’s thundering, sprinkling and pretty dark so I’d say it’s going to start raining hard here pretty soon,” she said. “If you live here, you’re pretty used to hurricane season and it being like this, but the last week or two we’ve been getting it pretty rough.”

In South Carolina, the National Weather Service’s Charleston office warned Sunday that as much as 3 to 4 inches of additional rainfall was possible in the afternoon and evening, and could lead to flash flooding. Showers and thunderstorms could develop across Charleston County down through Chatham County and inland, the office said.

Even in drier areas, more than 35,000 homes and businesses in Ohio, New York, Pennsylvania and Vermont still had no electricity as of Sunday afternoon, according to the tracking website PowerOutage.us. Some 23,000 outages lingered in hard-hit Ohio, where Debby-related storms including tornadoes blew through the northeastern part of the state on Wednesday.

Debby’s last day and night over the U.S. inundated parts of New York, Pennsylvania and New England with rain and flash flooding on Friday, prompting evacuations and rescues.

Stacey Urban, whose family owns the Moss Vanwie Farm in Canisteo, New York, said the floodwaters destroyed about three-fourths of the 1,200 acre farm, including about 400 acres of corn, 200 acres of soybeans and hundreds more acres of hay used to feed their cows and other animals.

“This is complete and total devastation,” she said by phone Sunday as fire department officials were bailing out the home’s flooded basement. “We never thought this would happen.”

Urban said the family, which has operated the farm about 37 years, hasn’t had a chance to take a full accounting of the damage but said all their 150 cows and 200 youngstock are safe and all farm equipment has been recovered.

“Whether it all works is another thing,” she said. “The water came in fast.”

Recovery efforts were ongoing in upstate New York’s Steuben County. Officials announced plans to distribute water bottles and clean-up kits to residents impacted by flash flooding on Sunday and Monday. The Red Cross also opened a shelter for flood victims at the Corning-Painted Post High School and planned to operate it until Monday.

The county, located along the Pennsylvania state line, declared a state of emergency Friday and ordered several towns evacuated as flood waters engulfed homes, farms and roadways. The area has been hit by devastating flash floods in prior storms, including in 2021.

“Twice in three years the Tuscarora Creek turned from a gentle stream into a raging beast,” county officials wrote in a post on the government’s Facebook page Sunday afternoon. “It’s just too much. The sun still rose Saturday. Volunteers fixed breakfast. People from all four towns rolled up their sleeves, took a deep breath.”

Officials in Tioga County in north-central Pennsylvania said Sunday morning that 10 teams of emergency service volunteers would be out surveying residents about damage as responders kept up the search for a person missing since the flooding.

“Please be kind to them, because these are volunteers … they work here in the 911 center, they’re fire, police, they’re EMS, these folks are dedicating their Sunday to help you out,” said County Commissioner Marc Rice.

Faith-based disaster relief organizations were also mobilizing to help assess damage and provide help, state Rep. Clint Owlett said. “That’s going to be a big deal.”

Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center is tracking another potential tropical storm in the Atlantic. Officials said a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two and could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle of the week.

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Ramer reported from in Concord, New Hampshire. Philip Marcelo in New York also contributed to this report.

First responders launched high-water and helicopter rescues of people trapped in cars and homes in rural New York and Pennsylvania as heavy rain from the remnants of Debby slammed the Northeast with intense flooding.

The worst of the flash flooding so far in New York was occurring in villages and hamlets in a largely rural area south of the Finger Lakes, not far from the Pennsylvania border.

In Steuben County, which borders Pennsylvania, officials ordered the evacuation of the towns of Jasper, Woodhull and part of Addison, and said people were trapped as floodwaters made multiple roads impassable.

In the hamlet of Woodhull, a rain-swollen creek ran so ferociously that water overtopped a bridge. Area resident Stephanie Waters said parts of sheds, branches and uprooted trees were among the debris that slammed into the span.

“Hearing the trees hit the bridge was scary,” she said.

Fire Chief Timothy Martin said everybody was safe in Woodhull, but “every business in Woodhull is damaged.”

John Anderson said he watched the floodwaters come up quickly, overwhelming some vehicles in Canisteo, in Steuben County, and nearby in Andover, in Allegany County. “It’s not a slow rise. It’s been very fierce,” said Anderson, who was providing dispatches to The Wellsville Sun. He said he watched people’s belongings get carried away by the raging water.

In Canisteo, farm owners Cliff and Deb Moss suffered heavy damage to their dairy farm, which has been there for more than five decades. A neighbor’s double-wide trailer floated down a field to a river during the flooding, said their daughter, Stacey Urban said.

Urban said the catastrophic damage to the community was still coming into focus, and was hard to fathom.

“They have lost a lot. Beyond heart breaking,” said Urban.

Steuben County manager Jack Wheeler said the storm was hitting some of the same areas as Tropical Storm Fred three years earlier, and that a half-dozen swift water rescue steams were actively retrieving people trapped in vehicles and homes.

About 20 evacuees arrived at a Red Cross shelter set up at a high school, Red Cross spokesman Michael Tedesco said. A second shelter was also being set up at another high school in Steuben County.

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul declared a state of emergency.

Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency Director Randy Padfield said a National Guard helicopter with aquatic rescue capability was sent to Tioga County because flooding conditions had become severe in the region that runs along the New York state line.

Padfield said Tioga officials have asked for help with eight to 10 rescue locations, and there are also multiple boat-based rescues being conducted.

In Potter County, also on the border with New York, the storm took out bridges and did severe damage to Route 49, said Commissioner Bob Rossman.

“My understanding is the roadway is pretty much well gone,” Rossman said. “That’ll be a very costly replacement. And one of the main thoroughfares in the county.”

He said one firefighter suffered water-related injuries but Rossman did not know the extent.

More than 150,000 customers were without power across New York and Pennsylvania, according to PowerOutage.us.

Debby was downgraded to a tropical depression late Thursday afternoon, and was a post-tropical cyclone on Friday, the National Hurricane Center said. It made landfall early Monday on the Gulf Coast of Florida as a Category 1 hurricane. Then, Debby made a second landfall early Thursday in South Carolina as a tropical storm.

In Vermont, Gov. Phil Scott warned the remnants of Debby could cause serious damage in the state, including already drenched parts of Vermont that were hit by flash flooding twice last month. Flooding that slammed the northeastern part of the state on July 30 knocked out bridges, destroyed and damaged homes, and washed away roads in the rural town of Lyndon. It came three weeks after deadly flooding from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl. President Joe Biden approved Vermont’s emergency declaration.

Rick Dente, who owns Dente’s Market in Barre, Vermont, worked to protect his business with plastic and sandbags as the rain poured down on Friday. “There isn’t a whole lot else you can do,” he said.

Jaqi Kincaid, hit by flooding last month in Lyndon, Vermont, said the previous storm knocked out her garage and well, so they have no water, and felled a 120-foot (36-meter) tree and took down fencing. “We’re doing a lot of this,” she told a reporter, holding her hands together as if in prayer.

Stormwater swamped parts of downtown Annapolis, Maryland, including at the U.S. Naval Academy campus Friday. And flash flooding hit the South Carolina town of Moncks Corner, where one of Debby’s early bands unleashed a tornado on Tuesday.

Up to 3 feet (0.9 meters) of fast-moving water rushed into Monks Corner, a city about 30 miles (48 kilometers) north of Charleston, the National Weather Service said. Across the surrounding Berkeley County, emergency crews made 33 high water rescues.

In Georgia, there were eight dam breaches with half of them occurring in Bulloch County, a rural region northwest of Savannah, Gov. Brian Kemp said. At one point, 140 people were in shelters, he said. Also in the state, some poultry facilities were flooded and some cattle were lost in flooded pastures, officials said.

At least eight people have died related to Debby, most in vehicle accidents or from fallen trees.

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This story has been updated to correct that Jaqi Kincaid was hit once by flooding, not twice.

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Sharp and Whittle reported from Portland, Maine. Hill reported from Altamont, New York. Scolforo reported from Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. Associated Press journalists Carolyn Thompson in Buffalo, New York; Lisa Rathke in Barre, Vermont; and Jeffrey Collins in Columbia, South Carolina contributed to this report.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration echoed CSU’s prediction Thursday in their updated 2024 hurricane season forecast, calling for an “extremely active” remainder of the season, which runs from June 1 to November 30.

CSU said in their two-week forecast that there’s an 85% chance that the span of Aug. 6 to 19 will produce above-normal Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the Atlantic. The norm is based on hurricane activity in the Atlantic from 1966–2023.

“We are quite confident that the next two weeks will be characterized by activity at above-normal levels. … We believe that the next two weeks will be quite active for Atlantic hurricane activity,” forecasters said in their report.

Their prediction is based on several factors. Firstly, there’s already been activity: Tropical Storm Debby, which strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane just before making landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida, maxed out the normal ACE for the time span, so any storm that follows vaults the status to above normal.

There is currently a tropical disturbance moving west across the tropical Atlantic that has a 60% chance of developing in the next seven days as it heads toward the Caribbean.

In their larger seasonal outlook, CSU said 2024 has been marked by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic. All that warm water can fuel storm formation. Additionally, the warm water tends to create lower atmospheric pressure and an unstable atmosphere, which also is favorable for storms.

A key force in inhibiting hurricane formation is wind shear. CSU analysis indicates that there will be very little, if any, wind shear in the coming weeks in the tropical Atlantic off Africa, where August storms usually form. “Vertical wind shear is generally forecast to be below normal (e.g., easterly anomalies) across the Atlantic Main Development Region for the next four weeks,” said the report.

That’s because a monthslong weather cycle called the Madden-Julian Oscillation is ramping up over the Indian Ocean. When it does, it reduces tropical Atlantic wind shear, and causes storminess over Africa, which can lead to storms over the Atlantic.

NOAA agrees

Additionally, NOAA updated their 2024 hurricane season forecast on Thursday, reiterating earlier outlooks by calling for a “highly active” remainder of the season.

“Atmospheric and oceanic conditions have set the stage for an extremely active hurricane season that could rank among the busiest on record,” said forecasters in a release.

The agency called for 17 to 24 named storms (the average is 14.4 between 1991 to 2020), 8-13 hurricanes (the average is 7.2) and 4 to 7 major hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin (the average is 3.2).

There have been four named storms thus far (Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby), leaving 20 more to go, if their worst-case prediction of 24 storms plays out.

NOAA called out similar atmospheric factors as CSU, but added that they expect the plums of dry Saharan dust, which travels off North Africa and over the Atlantic during summer, to dissipate. The dry air upon which the dust travels can halt hurricane formation.

The NOAA report also noted that in the coming months, La Niña is likely to kick in and reduce wind shear, thus enhancing hurricane formation.

The outer rain bands of Debby will continue to move through the area today. Expect on-and-off rounds of showers and storms throughout the day. Rain could be heavy at times with a strong to severe storm possible, including the threat for tornadoes. Winds will start to increase as well, mainly SE at 10 to 20 with gusts to 30 mph.

Showers and storms will continue for Friday. Winds will be strongest on Friday, mainly south at 15 to 25 with gusts to 40 mph. Most of the region will see an additional 2” to 4” of rainfall.

Based on the current forecast track, the remnants of Debby should move quickly to our northeast on Saturday. We will see a nice mix of sun & clouds this weekend with a smaller rain chance. Highs will linger in the mid 80s over the next several days, but it will still be muggy.

Today: Cloudy, Showers & Storms. Highs in the mid 80s. Winds: SE 10-20 G30
Tonight: Cloudy, Showers & Storms. Lows in the mid 70s. Winds: SE 10-20 G30
Tomorrow: Cloudy, Showers & Storms. Highs in the mid 80s. Winds: S 15-25 G40

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Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Debby moving inland over South Carolina. A slow northwest motion is expected today. Debby is expected to accelerate toward the north across the Carolina tonight. Debby is expected to move faster toward the northeast across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Debby is likely to become a tropical depression by this afternoon or evening. Debby should then merge with a front and become extratropical on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles to the east of the center.

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Weather & Health

Pollen: Low (Grasses)
UV Index: 2 (Low)
Air Quality: Good (Code Green)
Mosquitoes: Extreme

LUCAMA, N.C. (AP) — Tornadoes spawned by Debby leveled homes, damaged a school and killed one person early Thursday, as the tropical system dropped heavy rain and flooded communities across North and South Carolina.

It only took 15 seconds for a tornado to devastate Genesis Cooper’s home in Lucama, North Carolina, a small town about 40 miles (64 kilometers) east of Raleigh. He almost slept through it — if not for an alert on his wife’s phone.

He, his wife and their 20-year-old son huddled in a bathroom with blankets. They felt vibrations and heard glass shattering before hearing a sudden boom.

“I can’t even describe it. It’s like, suction, that’s what it felt like,” Cooper said. “Like something is squeezing, like your ears are popping.”

The tornado was one of at least three reported overnight in North Carolina, and perhaps the most devastating. One person was found dead in a home damaged by the Lucama tornado, Wilson County spokesman Stephen Mann said in an email. No further details on the person were immediately provided.

Parts of the roof and walls of Cooper’s house were torn off, while the side windows were busted out. But Cooper was calm, saying they were in God’s hands.

“This is just stuff. It can be replaced,” he said.

The superintendent of Wilson County Schools confirmed damage at Springfield Middle School, where sections of the walls and roof of the 6th and 7th grade halls are gone or compromised.

Drone footage showed portions of the school’s roof ripped off, exposing rafters and duct work. A section of wall had crumbled onto the soggy green lawn, which was strewn with twisted pieces of metal roof and shredded insulation.

Meanwhile, a dam north of Fayetteville broke Thursday morning as Debby drenched the area. Between 12 and 15 homes were evacuated, but no one was injured and no structures were damaged, Harnett County spokesperson Desiree Patrick said in an email.

North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper said at a briefing Thursday that the state has activated more National Guard troops and added additional vehicles that can rescue people in floods.

About 100 miles (161 kilometers) south of Lucama, deputies in Bladenboro posted photos of a patrol car damaged by a fallen tree, as well as roads that had been washed out. Standing water a few feet deep covered parts of the tiny North Carolina town.

Townspeople had helped fill sandbags Wednesday before up to 3 feet (91 centimeters) of floodwaters backed into the downtown overnight. When the sun came up, water could still be seen bubbling out of manhole covers.

Forrest Lennon, the owner of Diamond Dave’s Grill in Bladenboro, was counting his blessings even though 5 inches (13 centimeters) of floodwater made its way into the restaurant. He and his wife have owned the place since September. The previous owner said 3 feet of water inundated the building during the last two serious hurricanes, Matthew and Florence.

“It could have been a lot worse,” Lennon said, adding that they did everything they could to prepare for the storm.

“We just came in here and got everything we could as high as we could up off the ground … and we just left and prayed for the best,” he said.

Debby was a tropical depression by late Thursday afternoon, with maximum sustained winds around 35 mph (55 kph), the National Hurricane Center said. It made landfall early Monday on the Gulf Coast of Florida as a Category 1 hurricane. Then, Debby made a second landfall early Thursday in South Carolina as a tropical storm.

At least seven people have died due to the tropical weather.

Still, more flooding was expected in North and South Carolina. Up to 6 more inches (15 centimeters) of rain could fall before Debby clears those states. Parts of Maryland, upstate New York and Vermont could get similar rainfall totals by the end of the weekend, the weather service said.

Central parts of North Carolina up through Virginia were forecast to receive 3 to 7 inches (8 to 18 centimeters) of rain, with isolated areas getting up to 10 inches (25 centimeters) through Friday. The hurricane center warned of the potential for flash flooding.

Some residents of southeast Georgia were warned to brace for additional flooding Thursday even after Debby had cleared out for the Carolinas, as rivers swollen with rainfall overflowed their banks.

The Ogeechee River west of Savannah was forecast to reach its major flood stage Thursday night and crest early Sunday. Emergency officials in Effingham County called for some residents near the river to evacuate.

Officials in neighboring Chatham County, which includes Savannah, allowed residents to decide whether to leave, although rescue teams with boats had already retrieved 17 people from homes threatened by river flooding.

Chatham County Commission Chairman Chester Ellis said at a news conference to expect water where it hasn’t been seen before.

“If you have a substantial amount of water in your yards, I would say evacuate now while you still have a chance,” he added.

South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster also warned Thursday that Debby’s effects aren’t completely over because rain falling in North Carolina could swell rivers and cause flooding downstream.

“We’ve passed some dangers, but there’s still plenty,” McMaster said. “So don’t let your guard down yet.”

Back on the coast, Robert Chesnut stood in nearly a foot of water inside his Isle of Palms home with a rented an industrial pump that looked like a fire hose. After more than three hours, only about an inch (2.5 centimeters) of water had been pulled out of his house on the barrier island near Charleston.

And once the water is gone, there is still a lot of work to do.

“This is contaminated water,” Chesnut said. “These houses are on septic tanks. I hate to say it, but that’s fecal matter. You have to disinfect everything.”

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This story has been updated to correct the first name of a business owner. He is Forrest Lennon, not Forest. An earlier version of this story removed an incorrect reference to total rainfall amounts for the Carolinas.

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Associated Press contributors include Jeffrey Collins in Columbia, South Carolina; Jeff Martin in Atlanta, and freelance photographer Mic Smith in Isle of Palms, South Carolina.