A hurricane warning has been issued for the Sabine Pass to Morgan City, Louisiana. New Orleans is just outside the forecast cone of uncertainty but is under a hurricane watch.

“Significant strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days,” the hurricane center said. Officials warned residents within the forecast cone to complete preparations by Tuesday night and expect conditions to rapidly deteriorate through Wednesday.

Tropical storm warnings are in effect for northeastern Mexico and far southern Texas.

As of 5 a.m. Tuesday, the system was located 120 miles southeast of the Rio Grande at the Mexico-U.S. border. It was moving north-northwest at 5 mph with maximum sustained wind speeds of 65 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles from the center.

Francine is expected to impact Texas and Louisiana as a hurricane on Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

After making landfall along the Louisiana coast, the system “is expected to move inland along the Texas-Louisiana border,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Isaac Longley. “One of the main concerns with this storm is that it is forecast to move into an area already impacted by heavy rain and flooding from a separate tropical rainstorm this past week.

“The ground across far eastern Texas and into Louisiana is already saturated, so it would not take much rain to cause flooding across these areas.”

The storm should bring 4 to 8 inches of rain, with local amounts to 12 inches, from the coastal border areas of Mexico northward all the way to southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning. Flash flooding and urban flooding are a risk.

The National Hurricane Center added a storm surge warning from Vermillion Bay east to the mouth of the Mississippi River, and a surge watch from the mouth of the Mississippi east to the Mississippi-Alabama border.

If storm surge coincides with high tides, coastal Louisiana south and west of of New Orleans could see surges from 5 feet to 10 feet high, forecasters said.

There also is a hurricane watch from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle in Louisiana.

A tropical storm watch has been issued east of High Island, Texas, to Cameron, Louisiana, and from Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

AccuWeather expert meteorologists say 60 mph to 70 mph wind gusts are possible along the Gulf Coast through Thursday.

Meanwhile, two systems in the eastern Atlantic are being monitored and could develop into tropical depressions.

In the central Atlantic, an elongated trough of low pressure could become a tropical depression in the next few days as it moves west, forecasters said.

As of 8 p.m. Monday, it had a 40% chance of forming in the next two to seven days, down from 60% earlier in the day.

Meanwhile, a third system trailing close behind could become a tropical depression in the mid to latter part of this week, after it interacts with an approaching tropical wave, forecasters said. As of 8 p.m. Monday, it had a 70% chance of forming in the next seven days.

Experts at Colorado State University issued a new forecast last Tuesday, predicting below-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic for the next two weeks.

Here’s what the next two weeks of hurricane season should look like, according to experts

Overall, CSU experts predict 23 named storms in the 2024 season, leaving the possibility of 18 more before the season ends on Nov. 30. The average number of named storms between 1991 to 2020 is 14.4.

The next named storm will be Gordon.

The storm is expected to weaken significantly as it continues to curve into cooler waters, in the general direction of Ireland, and dissipate on Wednesday.

As of 11 a.m. Tuesday, Ernesto was located about 420 miles east-northeast of Cape Race, Nova Scotia, moving northeast at 37 mph, the National Hurricane Center said.

Days ago, Ernesto forced residents of Bermuda to stay indoors, and more than 23,000 people lost power, officials said.

According to AccuWeather, it’s uncommon for the eye of a hurricane to make landfall in Bermuda. It noted that since 1850, only 11 of 130 tropical storms that came within 100 miles of Bermuda had made landfall.

Ernesto also previously battered the northeast Caribbean, where it left tens of thousands of people without water in Puerto Rico.

AccuWeather experts expect there will be a brief pause in activity in the Atlantic after Ernesto, but they are forecasting “the tropics to shift into high gear by the end of August.”

Hurricane season, which runs from June 1-Nov. 30, has entered the busiest time of the year from mid-August to October. The next named storm will be Francine.

Though July was quiet, experts at Colorado State said the remainder of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season should be “extremely active,” with the likelihood of 10 more hurricanes.

Colorado State’s department of atmospheric science’s final 2024 hurricane season forecast called for a “well-above-average” August through November, although it reduced its number of named storms from its July forecast, from 25 down to 23. The 1991 to 2020 average is 14.4.

The Colorado State team still expects 12 hurricanes (the 1991-2020 average was 7.2), and is forecasting that six of those will reach major hurricane strength (Category 3, 4 or 5). The 1991-2020 average is 3.2.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration echoed Colorado State’s prediction in its updated 2024 hurricane season forecast, calling for an “extremely active” remainder of the season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

Information from the Associated Press was used in this report.

The disturbance is moving quickly to the west-northwest at 28 mph, the National Hurricane Center said in its 5 p.m. forecast.

The forward momentum is expected to decrease over the next couple days while Ernesto  tracks west  into the Caribbean Sea, passing portions of the Leeward Islands late Monday or Tuesday and near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Tuesday evening.

Forecasters expect Ernesto to strengthen into a hurricane as it arcs north toward Bermuda. If it does develop into a hurricane, it would be the season’s third, after Beryl and Debby.

Forecasters warned of possibly heavy rainfall and dangerous flash flooding in the Leeward Islands, a chain of islands in the northeast Caribbean Sea, as well as Antigua, Barbuda, Guadaloupe, where tropical storm warnings are posted. Those dangerous conditions are expected in Puerto Rico by Tuesday.

Accuweather meteorologists say after Tropical Storm Ernesto becomes a hurricane, rough surf and dangerous rip currents are expected across the entier East Coast of the United States later in the week.

“Rip currents could be very dangerous along the East coast of the United States. We often see rescues and loss of life at beaches during these types of storms,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said in a prepared statement. “The storm may be hundreds of miles out to sea and the weather could look great at beaches along Florida, the Carolinas, even up to New England, but everyone needs to be aware of the risks and dangers at the beach.”

As of 5 p.m. Monday, the depression’s highest sustained winds had picked up to 40 mph. The system was 295 miles east-southeast of Antigua and 590 miles from San Juan, Puerto Rico, moving west-northwest at 28 mph.

The forecast track has the storm staying well off the U.S. east coast.

Hurricane season, which runs from June 1-Nov. 30, has entered the busiest time of the year from mid-August to October.

Though July was quiet, experts at Colorado State this week said the remainder of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season should be “extremely active,” with the likelihood of 10 more hurricanes.

Colorado State’s department of atmospheric science has released its final 2024 hurricane season forecast for the year, calling for a “well-above-average” August through November.

One bright note is that it actually reduced its number of named storms from its July forecast, from 25 down to 23. The 1991 to 2020 average is 14.4.

The Colorado State team still expects 12 hurricanes (the 1991-2020 average was 7.2), and is forecasting that six of those will reach major hurricane strength (Category 3, 4 or 5). The 1991-2020 average is 3.2.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday echoed Colorado State’s prediction in its updated 2024 hurricane season forecast, calling for an “extremely active” remainder of the season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

The area of low pressure is forecast to develop along a front in the central Atlantic as soon as Wednesday, then travel southeast where it would encounter warmer water, which is conducive to tropical development. If it were to become a tropical storm, it would be Vince.

As of 7 a.m. Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center had given it a 50% chance of developing in the next seven days, and 20% in the next two days. It is projected to to turn northeast by the weekend.

Non-tropical systems, such as the Atlantic low, and the storm that dumped up to 12 inches of rain on areas of South Florida last week, gain their energy from cold and warm air interacting, while tropical systems gain their energy from warm ocean waters.

Earlier this week, forecasters were monitoring a tropical disturbance located north of Colombia and south of Haiti, but it was hindered by dry air. As of Tuesday, it was no longer expected to develop.

There have been 19 named storms this Atlantic hurricane season this year, seven of which were hurricanes. Three of them were major hurricanes, meaning at least a Category 3.

The two remaining names for storms from the year’s initial 21-name list are Vince and Whitney.

Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

The remnants of Tammy are forecast to bring wind gusts and heavy rain to Bermuda for the next few days, the National Hurricane Center said Thursday night. Swells could affect the northern Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Bermuda.

The storm will be meandering in the northwest Atlantic to the east of Bermuda through Saturday and the environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for it to regain tropical characteristics, the hurricane center said. Its odds of re-developing were at 50% in the next two to seven days as of 8 p.m. Thursday.

Tammy made landfall on Barbuda on Oct. 21, then lashed the Leeward Islands. The hurricane swiped the far eastern Caribbean two weeks after Tropical Storm Phillippe dumped 6 to 8 inches of rain over Antigua and Barbuda and knocked out electricity there, according to the Associated Press.

Forecasters are watching a second area in the Atlantic for potential tropical development as of Thursday night, in the western Caribbean Sea. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form there in the coming days, and it could slowly develop early next week while moving north.

As of 8 p.m., it has a 20% chance of developing in the next seven days, the National Hurricane Center said.

So far this season in the Atlantic, there have been 19 named storms, seven of which were hurricanes. Of those, three were major hurricanes, meaning Category 3 or above.

Those were Hurricane Lee, a rare Category 5; Hurricane Franklin, a Category 4; and Hurricane Idalia, which made landfall on Florida’s Big Bend region at Category 3 strength on Aug. 30.

The remaining storm names for 2023 are Vince and Whitney. If all those names end up being used this season, the National Hurricane Center would turn to the supplemental list of names from the World Meteorological Association. In previous years, the Greek alphabet was used for additional storm names — which had only happened twice before — during the record-shattering hurricane seasons in 2005 and 2020.

Hurricane season officially runs through Nov. 30.

Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.

A tropical storm warning has been issued for Bermuda, where tropical storm conditions are expected to start Friday night, according to the National Hurricane Center.  Forecasters project 3 to 6 inches of rain there through Friday, and large swells were already reaching the island Wednesday night.

Philippe’s maximum sustained winds were holding at 40 mph as of 5 a.m. Thursday and are expected to reach a maximum of 60 mph by early Saturday, well below the 74 mph threshold for a Category 1 hurricane. Previous forecasts had Philippe reaching Category 1 strength.

As of 5 a.m., Philippe was about midway between Puerto Rico and Bermuda, moving north at 12 mph. Its tropical-storm-force winds extended out 205 miles to the east of the storm’s center, the latest advisory said.

Hurricane Lee, which became a major hurricane in the Atlantic in early September, caused hurricane and tropical storm watches in parts of Atlantic Canada while it approached the coast and became a post-tropical cyclone before it moved across the region.

By the time Philippe moves over parts of Atlantic Canada this weekend, it is likely to be a post-tropical cyclone, forecasters said late Wednesday afternoon.

Though the storm is heading north, swells from Philippe will continue to affect parts of the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through Thursday, and could cause dangerous rip currents and surf, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Meanwhile, the hurricane center is watching a new tropical wave moving off the west coast of Africa, which is being given a 30% chance of developing over the next week as it moves into the eastern Atlantic.

So far this season in the Atlantic, there have been 16 named storms, six of which were hurricanes. Of those, three were major hurricanes, meaning Category 3 or above.

Those were Hurricane Lee, a rare Category 5; Hurricane Franklin, a Category 4; and Hurricane Idalia, which made landfall on Florida’s Big Bend region at Category 3 strength on Aug. 30.

The next named storm will be Sean.

Hurricane season officially runs through Nov. 30.

Lee is expected to become a hurricane Wednesday, strengthening into a major hurricane with wind speeds greater than 111 mph on Friday. The  latest NHC forecast discussion said Lee’s maximum sustained winds could reach up to 150 mph, putting it at the higher end of the Category 4 range.

Lee would be the fourth Atlantic hurricane of the 2023 season, behind Don, Franklin and Idalia. Franklin and Idalia were major hurricanes, meaning Category 3 or above.

As of 5 a.m. Wednesday, Lee was 1,265 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands, the eastern boundary of the Caribbean. Lee was moving west-northwest at 16 mph with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph, a 20-mph increase over late Tuesday.

Forecasters said Tuesday that “it is becoming a question of when and not if” Lee will rapidly intensify. Wind shear “could keep Lee in check for the next day or two,” but that is expected to decrease by Friday, allowing Lee to rapidly intensify as it moves over abnormally warm water.

“There is increasing confidence on Lee becoming a very powerful hurricane by this weekend,” the hurricane center said.

Its trajectory has it headed in the general direction of the Bahamas and potentially Florida.

It was too early to know exactly how close the system will get to the islands of the eastern Caribbean, though they could feel impacts by the weekend, the National Hurricane Center’s latest update said. The current cone indicating the probable path of the eye of the storm sits just north of Puerto Rico.

Several forecasting models show the storm steering north at some point. It remains unclear when, exactly, that would happen, and where that would place the storm. A sharp turn north would take the storm away from South Florida.

“The high pressure to the north of it, that’s what’s going to steer it,” said Anthony Reynes, senior forecaster with the National Weather Service in Miami.

“Tropical systems, they cannot go against the flow of the high pressure, they have to go around it … once it moves to the north of Puerto Rico, it’s going to start shifting more to the north and eventually northeast. The cyclone is moving around the edge of that high.”

There also will be a low pressure trough moving east over the U.S. that should also contribute to the northward motion of the storm, he said.

The system will be traveling over record-warm water, close to 86 degrees.

The National Weather Service Miami said Tuesday night on the social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, that South Florida is not expected to be directly impacted but reminded South Floridians that it is now peak hurricane season and to ensure supplies are ready.

Another tropical depression could form later in the week or this weekend from a tropical wave off the coast of Africa that is expected to move west-northwest toward the central tropical Atlantic.

As of 8 a.m. Wednesday, its odds of developing were at 60% within seven days, and 30% within two days. It will move over the Cabo Verde Islands off Africa on Wednesday night and Thursday, the hurricane center said.

Meanwhile, the remnants of Hurricane Franklin were given a 10% chance of gaining “some subtropical or tropical characteristics” in the next seven days over the warm waters near Portugal. It is not expected to further develop, though, by later in the week.

The National Hurricane Center, which operates under the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, has forecast 14 to 21 named storms, including six to 11 hurricanes, and two to five major hurricanes.

The National Hurricane Center has been predicting an “above-normal” 2023 hurricane season as a result of ongoing record-breaking sea surface temperatures that continue to fight off the tempering effects of El Niño.

While sea-surface temperatures have remained hot for longer than anticipated, El Niño’s effects, which typically reduce hurricane chances, have emerged more slowly.

Along with the four named storms churning, a new tropical depression has formed that will likely become a tropical storm soon, according to the National Hurricane Center.

If named, it would be Tropical Storm Katia (KAH-tyah).

After Katia, the next named storm would be Lee.

What was Tropical Storm Gert last week reformed as of late Friday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center said, joining what are now Post-Tropical Cyclones Idalia and Franklin and Tropical Storm Jose among the named storms.

The hurricane center is also tracking two more systems in the Atlantic, including newly formed Tropical Depression Twelve, which formed in the eastern Atlantic late Friday morning. It could become a short-lived tropical storm by Saturday.

As of 8 p.m., Tropical Depression Twelve was located 450 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, off the coast of Africa, moving north-northwest at 12 mph with maximum winds near 35 mph. The depression should weaken and degenerate into a remnant low by Sunday.

Among the named systems, only one is a threat to land. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Bermuda as Idalia  could re-strengthen into a tropical storm by Saturday and approach the southern part of the island, according to the hurricane center.

As of 8 p.m., Idalia was located 80 miles west-southwest of Bermuda, heading east-southeast at 15 mph with 50 mph sustained winds. Its tropical-storm-force winds extend out 240 miles.

The storm could bring as much as 5 inches of rain to Bermuda through Sunday night and will likely cause flooding, the hurricane center said.

Franklin weakened to a Category 1 on Thursday and further weakened into a post-tropical system late Friday afternoon. As of 5 p.m., it was about 790 miles northeast of Bermuda. Franklin is forecast to slowly weaken over the weekend into early next week, the hurricane center said.

What was Franklin is also expected to absorb Tropical Storm Jose, which formed Thursday, by Friday night or early Saturday.

At 5 p.m., Jose was located over 1,000 miles northeast of Bermuda, quickly moving north-northeastward at 32 mph with sustained winds of 50 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend out up to 70 miles.

Meanwhile, as of the 5 p.m. advisory, Tropical Storm Gert was located 695 miles east-southeast of Bermuda moving east-southeast at 7 mph with 40 mph sustained winds. Gert is expected to dissipate by Monday, the latest advisory said.

The last weather system being monitored is what’s expected to be a tropical wave coming off the west coast of Africa this weekend. The disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward between 15 and 20 mph over the eastern and central Atlantic.

As of 8 p.m. Friday, it was given a 60% chance of developing in the next seven days, up from earlier in the day.

The NHC, which operates under the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, has forecast 14-21 named storms, including 6-11 hurricanes, and two to five major hurricanes.

As of Aug. 31, there have been three hurricanes — Don, Franklin and Idalia, the latter two of which were major hurricanes.

The National Hurricane Center has been predicting an “above-normal” 2023 hurricane season as a result of ongoing record-breaking sea surface temperatures that continue to fight off the tempering effects of El Niño.

While sea surface temperatures have remained hot for longer than anticipated, El Niño’s effects, which typically reduce hurricane chances, have emerged more slowly.

The storm left a wake of destruction from the Gulf inland as it made its way through Florida and into Georgia. The hurricane rapidly intensified into a major Category 4 storm before dropping back to a Category 3 early Wednesday.

Idalia made landfall as Category 3, with maximum sustained winds near 125 mph, about 7:45 a.m. near Keaton Beach, at the corner of Florida’s Big Bend region, striking one of the least populated areas of the state, known as the “nature coast.”

One of the hardest-hit communities was Perry, a small town that sits in the middle of the Big Bend region of the Gulf coast. “It was frightening,” Belond Thomas, of Perry, told The Associated Press. “Things were just going so fast. … Everything was spinning.”

Thomas fled with her family and some friends to a motel. But as Idalia’s eye passed over about 8:30 a.m., the high winds ripped the building’s roof off, sending debris down on her pregnant daughter, who was lying in bed. She was not injured.

State officials, 5,500 National Guardsman and rescue crews were in search-and-recovery mode, inspecting bridges, clearing toppled trees and looking for anyone in distress.

The Florida Highway Patrol reported two deaths that had happened as the storm approached landfall, but Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said it has not been determined yet whether those deaths in two counties would be deemed storm-related.

Idalia was downgraded to a tropical storm late Wednesday afternoon. By early Thursday, Idalia was a fast-moving tropical storm lashing eastern North Carolina with heavy rain and winds. Its top winds were at 60 mph as of 8 a.m. Thursday as it moved east-northeast at 17 mph.

Parts of North Carolina were under a tropical storm warning and a storm surge watch.

Idalia was expected to head near or along South Carolina’s coast overnight and be offshore of North Carolina on Thursday before making its way east into the western Atlantic throughout the weekend.

Storm surge was still expected along the southeastern U.S. coast through Wednesday night and in North Carolina on Thursday, when Idalia still will likely be at tropical-storm strength.

Late Wednesday, North Myrtle Beach, Garden City, Charleston and Edisto Island all reported ocean water topping sand dunes or walls and into beachfront streets. The tide continued to rise in Charleston harbor.

Idalia also spawned a tornado that touched down briefly in the Charleston suburb of Goose Creek, the National Weather Service said.

Idalia had remained a hurricane as it crossed into Georgia, with top winds of 90 mph at 11 a.m., after drenching Florida mostly to the east of Tallahassee.

WATCH: Hurricane Idalia live webcams from Florida’s west coast

As of Wednesday afternoon, DeSantis said that 262,000 homes had had electricity restored, and another 250,000 were without power along the path of the storm.

At a news conference, Kevin Guthrie, director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, said that the most punishing impact so far has been in the town of Perry. “Right now, we know we have a couple businesses that have caught on fire. A few that had roofs knocked off of them, potentially one collapse.”

After that news conference, DeSantis and others apparently attempted to head to the nearby town of Steinhatchee, on the coast, but the roads were impassable. He said there were reports of looting there, and that the town got “an awful lot of water,” but there were no reports, as of yet, of any fatalities.

Cedar Key was on the “dirty” right hand side of the storm, where impacts tend to be more severe. A National Ocean Service tide gauge there showed a surge nearly 9 feet higher than the predicted tidal level. “We have multiple trees down, debris in the roads, do not come,” posted the fire and rescue department in Cedar Key. “We have propane tanks blowing up all over the island.”

Farther south, in more populated areas hit by storm surge, county officials in Citrus County said they used airboats and large trucks to rescue about 60 people. There were 3,300 without power. The city of St. Petersburg said 75 people were rescued.

Storm surge from #HurricaneIdalia reversed the Steinhatchee River, tore sailboats from their moorings and they lost their masts against the bridge. #Steinhatchee #Florida pic.twitter.com/gd1fBxhMNP

— Jonathan Petramala (@jpetramala) August 30, 2023

Several hours after landfall, Idalia did not seem to be as deadly as last year’s Hurricane Ian, which hit the Fort Myers area and left 149 dead in the state.

“With Hurricane Ian, within an hour after it hitting, there were frantic phone calls to 911 locally there, of people that were literally drowning in their house,” DeSantis said. “The feeling of dread that those calls represented, you knew there were going to be a lot of problems. We have not seen that in the same way on this storm. I think a lot of people really heeded the warnings.”

MAP: Power outages across Florida caused by Hurricane Idalia

The Florida Highway Patrol released details about the two deaths that happened as the storm approached landfall. A man died about 6 a.m. in Gainesville while driving in “extremely rainy conditions,” according to the Highway Patrol.  His pickup veered into a ditch and hit a tree.

He was declared dead at the scene by Alachua County Fire Rescue responders. The second man died in Paco County when he lost control of his vehicle at 6:15 a.m. while traveling too fast for the conditions, according to the Highway Patrol. He collided with a tree.

A man in Georgia died Wednesday after a tree fell on him while he was clearing a blocked road, The Associated Press reported.

An ‘unprecedented’ path

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee called Idalia “an unprecedented event” since no major hurricanes on record have ever passed through the bay abutting the Big Bend.

“Looking back through recorded history, NO major hurricanes have ever moved through the Apalachee Bay,” the National Weather Service Tallahassee said. “When you try to compare this storm to others, DON’T. No one has seen this.”

Before the storm hit, DeSantis had expanded the state of emergency to include 49 counties in Florida.

Samantha Park and her fiancé, Peter, of Tampa, were among many of the new Florida residents who experienced their first hurricane threat.

As the storm was brewing in the Gulf, the couple relocated to a hotel in downtown Orlando on Monday afternoon with their two cats, Rory and Meeko.

“If there was any kind of mass exodus, we figured we’d try to beat it,” Park, 28, said.

Weather in Orlando was mild, Park said, which the couple was grateful for because she’d been afraid that perhaps the storm could have followed them to Orlando. “What’s the right answer? You really don’t know. You’re kind of just throwing a dart and hoping that the storm doesn’t come in your direction,” she said.

Florida’s west coast could still see another 1 to 2 inches of rain Thursday from bands following behind Idalia, the hurricane center said Wednesday night.

Guthrie warned at the Wednesday afternoon press conference that rivers affected by the storm could take 24, 48 or even 72 hours to reach peak flood stage.

The National Hurricane Center forecast for the season predicted two to five major hurricanes for the 2023 Atlantic season.

As of Aug. 31, there have been three hurricanes — Don, Franklin and Idalia, the latter two of which were major hurricanes.

Tropical Storm Jose formed early Thursday in the central Atlantic near Bermuda from what was Tropical Depression 11. Jose is expected to stick around a few days before being absorbed by what is currently Hurricane Franklin, according to the latest from the National Hurricane Center.

The next named storm to form would be Katia (KAH-tyah).

Franklin was maintaining as a Category 2 hurricane early Thursday with top winds of 100 mph. As of 5 a.m., it was about 200 miles north-northeast of Bermuda. The hurricane is forecast to slowly weaken and dissipate this week.

A tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic off Africa is likely to become a tropical depression later this week as it moves west-northwest, the National Hurricane Center said. As of 8 a.m. Thursday, its odds of developing were at 70% in the next two to seven days.

Finally, the remnants of Tropical Storm Gert drifted several hundred miles north of the Leeward Islands. Its chances of regenerating were low, 30% in the next two to seven days.

The National Hurricane Center has been predicting an “above-normal” 2023 hurricane season as a result of ongoing record-breaking sea surface temperatures that continue to fight off the tempering effects of El Niño.

While sea surface temperatures have remained hot for longer than anticipated, El Niño’s effects, which typically reduce hurricane chances, have emerged more slowly.

The National Hurricane Center, which operates under the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, has forecast 14 to 21 named storms, including six to 11 hurricanes, and two to five major hurricanes.

Sun Sentinel staff writer Abigail Hasebroock contributed, and information from The Associated Press was used to supplement this news article. 

Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions will begin tonight along Florida’s west coast, the National Hurricane Center said in its 5 p.m. update. Idalia’s squalls are currently reaching the Lower Keys and parts of Southwest Florida.

Idalia, which became a hurricane Tuesday, was 195 miles southwest of Tampa Bay as of 5 p.m., traveling north at 16 mph.

Evacuation orders and school closures already were in effect along the Gulf Coast. If the hurricane arrives during high tide, storm surge could reach 8 to 12 feet in some areas, Gov. Ron DeSantis said.

“If you’re there in that storm surge, you’re putting your life in jeopardy,” DeSantis said Tuesday. “Please heed those orders. You don’t have to leave the state. You don’t have to go hundreds of miles, you can go to a shelter in a different part of your county, go to a friend’s house in an area that is not going to be susceptible to the storm surge, or a hotel — all these things are good to do.”

The National Hurricane Center said that storm surge could reach 10 to 15 feet in the area between the Aucilla River and Yankeetown in the Big Bend region. Yankeetown to Chassahowitzka could see 7 to 11 feet. Tampa Bay could see 4 to 7 feet. Areas as far south at Chocoloskee could see 4 feet of surge.

National Weather Service meteorologist Steve Winn said that storm surge would begin in the Tampa area between 6 p.m. and 8 p.m. tonight, which generally lines up with low tide the mouth of the bay and a falling tide inside the bay.

He said the Big Bend area, which is predicted to be the hardest hit, will see surge start at 3 a.m. on Wednesday. High tide in that area is around 2:30 a.m.

The storm’s projected path as narrowed and moved a bit west. As a result, the hurricane watch from Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key has been discontinued, and the storm surge watch south of Bonita Beach near Naples has been discontinued.

Seeing ‘rapid intensification’

The latest projections indicate that Idalia’s maximum sustained winds could reach up to 125 mph ahead of landfall. The system is traveling over water with temperatures as high as 87 degrees.

“Rapid intensification is likely through landfall, and Idalia is forecast to become an extremely dangerous major hurricane before landfall on Wednesday,” the National Hurricane Center said.

Idalia’s hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 15 miles from its center, and tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 160 miles as of 5 p.m. Tuesday.

State of emergency

DeSantis expanded the state of emergency to include 49 counties in Florida, up from 46 on Monday, readying for Idalia’s landfall. That’s about three-quarters of the counties in the entire state. The new counties are inland and east coast counties near Orlando, and include Orange, Brevard and Osceola counties.

Additionally, at least 22 counties have issued evacuation orders in certain low-lying and vulnerable areas.

The state of emergency for Idalia excludes Broward, Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties. The temperatures in South Florida on Wednesday will be close to reaching heat advisory criteria, but slightly cooler, as Idalia makes landfall and the “outer spiral” rain bands from the storm arrive in the region.

Hurricane warnings and storm surge

A hurricane warning remains in effect for the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.

A storm surge warning extends well beyond the cone, south past Tampa Bay to Englewood and north to Indian Pass.

The storm will bring heavy rain and flooding to Florida’s west coast and Panhandle, with 4 to 8 inches falling from Tuesday into Thursday. Landfall areas in Florida could receive 12 inches.

Tornadoes are possible starting Tuesday along Florida’s west central Florida and moving north into the Big Bend area by Tuesday night.

Shelters have already begun to open with more expected to open Tuesday. The governor’s office said roadway tolls will be suspended starting at 4 a.m. Tuesday to help people evacuate.

Several Gulf coast counties have canceled school, and the University of Florida announced that it would close its campus and cancel classes, both in-person and online, Tuesday and Wednesday. It also led the University of Central Florida to cancel classes Wednesday.

At several press conferences today, Gov. Ron DeSantis implored residents to evacuate and heed warnings from local officials.

On the island of Cedar Key, in the middle of the current eye-track cone, Commissioner Sue Colson joined other city officials in packing up documents and electronics at City Hall. She had a message for the almost 900 residents who were under mandatory orders to evacuate the island near the coast of the Big Bend region. More than a dozen state troopers went door-to-door warning residents that storm surge could rise as high as 15 feet (4.5 meters).

“One word: Leave,” Colson said. “It’s not something to discuss.”

Not everyone was heeding the warning. Andy Bair, owner of the Island Hotel, said he intended to “babysit” his bed-and-breakfast, which predates the Civil War. The building has not flooded in the almost 20 years he has owned it, not even when Hurricane Hermine flooded the city in 2016.

“Being a caretaker of the oldest building in Cedar Key, I just feel kind of like I need to be here,” Bair said. “We’ve proven time and again that we’re not going to wash away. We may be a little uncomfortable for a couple of days, but we’ll be OK eventually.”

The National Hurricane Center forecast for the season predicted two to five major hurricanes for the 2023 Atlantic season.

Idalia is the third hurricane in the Atlantic this season. Hurricane Franklin, located near Bermuda Tuesday, strengthened into a Category 4 storm Monday as the Atlantic’s first major hurricane of the season.

In addition to Hurricane Franklin, forecasters are also monitoring an area in the central tropical Atlantic for potential development as well as a tropical wave near Africa’s west coast that is expected to move over the Atlantic in the next couple of days.

As of 5 p.m. Tuesday, the system close to Africa had a 50% chance of developing in the next seven days, and the system in the central area had become a tropical depression with sustained wind speeds of 35 mph.

The National Hurricane Center has been predicting an “above-normal” 2023 hurricane season as a result of ongoing record-breaking sea surface temperatures that continue to fight off the tempering effects of El Niño.

While sea surface temperatures have remained hot for longer than anticipated, El Niño’s effects, which typically reduce hurricane chances, have emerged more slowly.

The National Hurricane Center, which operates under the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, has forecast 14 to 21 named storms, including six to 11 hurricanes, and two to five major hurricanes.

The next storm to form would be Jose.

The Associated Press contributed reporting to this story.