Hurricane Idalia has reached Category 2 strength with sustained maximum winds speeds of 100 mph as it travels over the hot waters of the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a projected landfall along Florida’s Gulf Coast on Wednesday as a major Category 3 hurricane, according to the National Hurricane Center. The result could be catastrophic storm surge.
Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions will begin tonight along Florida’s west coast, the National Hurricane Center said in its 5 p.m. update. Idalia’s squalls are currently reaching the Lower Keys and parts of Southwest Florida.
Idalia, which became a hurricane Tuesday, was 195 miles southwest of Tampa Bay as of 5 p.m., traveling north at 16 mph.
Evacuation orders and school closures already were in effect along the Gulf Coast. If the hurricane arrives during high tide, storm surge could reach 8 to 12 feet in some areas, Gov. Ron DeSantis said.
“If you’re there in that storm surge, you’re putting your life in jeopardy,” DeSantis said Tuesday. “Please heed those orders. You don’t have to leave the state. You don’t have to go hundreds of miles, you can go to a shelter in a different part of your county, go to a friend’s house in an area that is not going to be susceptible to the storm surge, or a hotel — all these things are good to do.”
The National Hurricane Center said that storm surge could reach 10 to 15 feet in the area between the Aucilla River and Yankeetown in the Big Bend region. Yankeetown to Chassahowitzka could see 7 to 11 feet. Tampa Bay could see 4 to 7 feet. Areas as far south at Chocoloskee could see 4 feet of surge.
National Weather Service meteorologist Steve Winn said that storm surge would begin in the Tampa area between 6 p.m. and 8 p.m. tonight, which generally lines up with low tide the mouth of the bay and a falling tide inside the bay.
He said the Big Bend area, which is predicted to be the hardest hit, will see surge start at 3 a.m. on Wednesday. High tide in that area is around 2:30 a.m.
The storm’s projected path as narrowed and moved a bit west. As a result, the hurricane watch from Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key has been discontinued, and the storm surge watch south of Bonita Beach near Naples has been discontinued.
Seeing ‘rapid intensification’
The latest projections indicate that Idalia’s maximum sustained winds could reach up to 125 mph ahead of landfall. The system is traveling over water with temperatures as high as 87 degrees.
“Rapid intensification is likely through landfall, and Idalia is forecast to become an extremely dangerous major hurricane before landfall on Wednesday,” the National Hurricane Center said.
Idalia’s hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 15 miles from its center, and tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 160 miles as of 5 p.m. Tuesday.
State of emergency
DeSantis expanded the state of emergency to include 49 counties in Florida, up from 46 on Monday, readying for Idalia’s landfall. That’s about three-quarters of the counties in the entire state. The new counties are inland and east coast counties near Orlando, and include Orange, Brevard and Osceola counties.
Additionally, at least 22 counties have issued evacuation orders in certain low-lying and vulnerable areas.
The state of emergency for Idalia excludes Broward, Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties. The temperatures in South Florida on Wednesday will be close to reaching heat advisory criteria, but slightly cooler, as Idalia makes landfall and the “outer spiral” rain bands from the storm arrive in the region.
Hurricane warnings and storm surge
A hurricane warning remains in effect for the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.
A storm surge warning extends well beyond the cone, south past Tampa Bay to Englewood and north to Indian Pass.
The storm will bring heavy rain and flooding to Florida’s west coast and Panhandle, with 4 to 8 inches falling from Tuesday into Thursday. Landfall areas in Florida could receive 12 inches.
Tornadoes are possible starting Tuesday along Florida’s west central Florida and moving north into the Big Bend area by Tuesday night.
Shelters have already begun to open with more expected to open Tuesday. The governor’s office said roadway tolls will be suspended starting at 4 a.m. Tuesday to help people evacuate.
Several Gulf coast counties have canceled school, and the University of Florida announced that it would close its campus and cancel classes, both in-person and online, Tuesday and Wednesday. It also led the University of Central Florida to cancel classes Wednesday.
At several press conferences today, Gov. Ron DeSantis implored residents to evacuate and heed warnings from local officials.
On the island of Cedar Key, in the middle of the current eye-track cone, Commissioner Sue Colson joined other city officials in packing up documents and electronics at City Hall. She had a message for the almost 900 residents who were under mandatory orders to evacuate the island near the coast of the Big Bend region. More than a dozen state troopers went door-to-door warning residents that storm surge could rise as high as 15 feet (4.5 meters).
“One word: Leave,” Colson said. “It’s not something to discuss.”
Not everyone was heeding the warning. Andy Bair, owner of the Island Hotel, said he intended to “babysit” his bed-and-breakfast, which predates the Civil War. The building has not flooded in the almost 20 years he has owned it, not even when Hurricane Hermine flooded the city in 2016.
“Being a caretaker of the oldest building in Cedar Key, I just feel kind of like I need to be here,” Bair said. “We’ve proven time and again that we’re not going to wash away. We may be a little uncomfortable for a couple of days, but we’ll be OK eventually.”
The National Hurricane Center forecast for the season predicted two to five major hurricanes for the 2023 Atlantic season.
Idalia is the third hurricane in the Atlantic this season. Hurricane Franklin, located near Bermuda Tuesday, strengthened into a Category 4 storm Monday as the Atlantic’s first major hurricane of the season.
In addition to Hurricane Franklin, forecasters are also monitoring an area in the central tropical Atlantic for potential development as well as a tropical wave near Africa’s west coast that is expected to move over the Atlantic in the next couple of days.
As of 5 p.m. Tuesday, the system close to Africa had a 50% chance of developing in the next seven days, and the system in the central area had become a tropical depression with sustained wind speeds of 35 mph.
The National Hurricane Center has been predicting an “above-normal” 2023 hurricane season as a result of ongoing record-breaking sea surface temperatures that continue to fight off the tempering effects of El Niño.
While sea surface temperatures have remained hot for longer than anticipated, El Niño’s effects, which typically reduce hurricane chances, have emerged more slowly.
The National Hurricane Center, which operates under the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, has forecast 14 to 21 named storms, including six to 11 hurricanes, and two to five major hurricanes.
The next storm to form would be Jose.
The Associated Press contributed reporting to this story.
