Vice President Kamala Harris is slightly leading former President Donald Trump among Virginians in the race for the White House, according to a poll released Tuesday from Roanoke College.
The poll was conducted between Aug. 12 and Aug. 16, nearly a month after President Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race and endorsed Harris as his replacement. Roanoke’s Institute for Policy and Opinion Research interviewed 691 likely voters in Virginia.
The poll showed Harris with a three-point lead (47% to 44%) over Trump in a head-to-head matchup in the commonwealth, and a similar lead (45% to 42%) when other candidates are included. Nearly four in five poll participants said they were very certain about their choice. The survey has a weighted margin of error of 4.5%.
The previous poll in May showed Trump and Biden tied. This is the first Roanoke College poll including Harris as the Democratic party candidate.
“The switch from Biden to Harris made a difference in Virginia, but perhaps not as great as some may have thought,” Harry Wilson, the institute’s senior political analyst, said in a statement. “The news for Harris is certainly better than it was for Biden, but her three-point lead is still within the margin of error.”
“Both candidates are polling very well within their party, and there is a minuscule number of undecided voters,” Wilson continued. “The party bases remain important, as always. The number who say they will vote third party is declining, and those voters may well determine who wins in Virginia.”
But in the race for a U.S. Senate seat representing Virginia, Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine continues to hold a strong lead over Republican challenger Hung Cao. The poll found nearly half of Virginians (49%) indicated they would vote for Kaine, with 38% supporting Cao.
Those surveyed identified the most important issues as the economy (48%), abortion (16%), immigration (15%), foreign affairs (6%) and crime (4%).
The poll indicates Virginians have mixed reactions to both vice presidential candidates. When asked about Harris’ running mate Tim Walz, respondents reported being enthusiastic (25%), satisfied (27%), dissatisfied (30%), angry (14%) and unsure (4%).
When asked about Trump’s running mate J.D. Vance, respondents reported being enthusiastic (20%), satisfied (27%), dissatisfied (32%), angry (18%) and unsure (3%).
It additionally offered good news for Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin. The majority (59%) of those surveyed said they approve of his job performance — the highest approval rating the governor has received from any Roanoke College poll.
Of the 691 interviews completed for the poll, 331 came from random telephone calls and texts to Virginians and 360 were drawn from a proprietary online panel of Virginians. Quotas were used to ensure that different regions of the commonwealth were proportionately represented in the poll, according to a news release from the institute. The data were statistically weighted for gender, race and age.
Katie King, katie.king@virginiamedia.com
