A tropical wave with thunderstorms stretching more than 600 miles from north to south moving over the northern Caribbean islands could form into a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico near Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center.
As of the NHC’s 2 a.m. tropical outlook Friday, the well-defined tropical wave was producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba as well as the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic.
“The wave is expected to move near or over Cuba throughout the day and then emerge over the Straits of Florida tonight or Saturday,” said NHC senior hurricane specialist John Cangialosi. “Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development after that time, and a tropicaldepression is likely to form this weekend over the Straits of Florida or eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula.”
Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of Florida later today, he said.
The NHC gives it a 50% chance to develop in the next two days and 80% within the next seven.
The NHC’s potential path based on varying forecast models has shifted more to the west, although the entire Florida peninsula remains within the area that could be affected by the system.
“Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause areas of flash flooding across Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas through the weekend, and interests in these locations should continue to monitor the progress of this system,” Cangialosi said. “A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today, if necessary.”
The tropical wave stretches over a long distance from the Caribbean Sea all the way north to the central Bahamas in the Atlantic. It’s moving west around 20 mph and the northern end has seen wave heights of 7 to 9 feet Thursday morning.
“The tropical wave and attendant winds, seas and weather will shift across the waters to the north of Hispaniola through Thursday. A trough will continue to move west-northwest across the Bahamas Thursday night through Friday night, then continue west- northwest Saturday and Sunday and impact portions of the Straits of Florida, South Florida and the southeast Gulf of Mexico,” said NHC tropical analysis lead forecaster Eric Christensen.
The National Weather Service in Melbourne said it’s uncertain what effects the system will have on Central Florida, but for now forecasts up to 2 inches of rain in some areas.
“This feature remains shrouded in mystery in terms of placement, track and strength. Latest model guidance does show a more westward formation/track that could take it up the eastern Gulf and possibly becoming a tropical depression sometime this weekend or early next week,” said NWS Meteorologist Tim Sedlock. “Models will continue to have a problem with this feature until a low actually develops.”
Those totals increase farther south, according to NWS Miami, but the intensity of the wave and whether or not it gets circulation remains up in the air.
“Regardless of how and if this system develops, the main takeaway currently is that deep tropical moisture will continue to be pushing into the region throughout the weekend and into early next week.” said NWS Miami Meteorologist Chuck Caracozza. “This could result in the potential for above average rainfall during this time frame with the abundance of moisture in place.
The forecast calls for multiple rounds of heavy downpours over the same areas that could bring localized flooding.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has been quiet for the last three weeks as dry Saharan dust has stymied development over the ocean, although water temperatures remain above normal.
So far the season has seen three named storms including Hurricane Beryl that plowed through the Caribbean, Mexico and Texas in early July.
Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30, but the height of storm formation runs from mid-August into October.
